As the political temperature rises ahead of the Jharkhand assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is methodically crafting a strategy aimed at reclaiming its foothold in the state. With a carefully devised masterplan that includes grassroots mobilization, opinion polling, alliances with regional heavyweights, and a sharp focus on tribal issues, the BJP is gradually gaining an edge.
Meanwhile, the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) seems to be showing signs of nervousness as internal dissent rises and public dissatisfaction becomes more evident. Here's a closer look at how the BJP is positioning itself for a potential comeback and why the JMM is appearing increasingly vulnerable.
Former Jharkhand chief minister Champai Soren with Union Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, Jharkhand BJP President Babulal Marandi, party leader Arjun Munda and others as Soren joined BJP during a ceremony, in Ranchi, Friday, Aug. 30, 2024.
Grassroots Strategy: The Power of 'Raishumaari'
At the core of BJP's strategy is its engagement with party workers through the 'Raishumaari' (seeking opinion) exercise. This is not a new concept for the party, but its scale has been significantly expanded this time. By consulting thousands of party workers down to the panchayat level, the BJP is ensuring that its decision-making is inclusive and democratic. Unlike in previous elections, where opinions were sought from only block-level office bearers, this time, feedback will be taken from around 500-700 workers per constituency.
This approach is a masterstroke in solidifying internal unity and building trust among its cadre, particularly in a state where grassroots-level involvement is crucial. Additionally, it provides the BJP with an in-depth understanding of which candidates are truly favoured by the party's local workers, ensuring that its choices are reflective of ground realities. The selection process, which will involve scrutiny of secret ballots, will help the party field candidates who enjoy both organisational and grassroots support. This is a significant shift from the usual top-down approach to candidate selection.
Leveraging Alliances: Strengthening the NDA Front
One of the critical elements of the BJP's strategy in Jharkhand is its attempt to consolidate alliances within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Unlike the 2019 assembly elections, where the BJP fought alone, this time the party is aligning with key regional players like the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) and possibly Janata Dal United (JDU). This alliance has the potential to bring together a broad base of voters, including sections of the electorate that may have been beyond the BJP's reach in previous elections.
The AJSU, in particular, is a significant partner as it has traditionally held sway in some tribal areas. By bringing AJSU chief Sudesh Mahto into its fold, the BJP is attempting to reclaim tribal votes that it lost in the last election. Additionally, talks with JDU for seat-sharing are nearing completion, and the finalisation of this alliance could further bolster BJP's prospects by expanding its reach in constituencies where regional identity politics play a critical role.
Tribal Push: Addressing Key ConcernsOne of the most critical elements of the BJP's masterplan is its focus on tribal issues. Jharkhand's tribal population, which had largely supported the JMM in the previous election, is now being courted aggressively by the BJP. The induction of prominent tribal leaders like Champai Soren and Geeta Koda into the party is part of this strategy. Champai Soren, who recently joined the BJP after defecting from the JMM, is expected to play a pivotal role in winning back support in the Kolhan region, an area critical to the state's tribal politics.
The BJP's emphasis on protecting tribal identity and addressing concerns over illegal immigration has resonated strongly with tribal voters, particularly in the Santal Pargana region, which accounts for a large portion of the state's tribal-reserved seats. The party's rhetoric around illegal infiltration and the erosion of tribal identity has gained traction among voters, positioning the BJP as the party that is more serious about safeguarding tribal interests.
JMM's Nervousness: Internal Strife and Anti-IncumbencyWhile the BJP meticulously executes its masterplan, the ruling JMM appears increasingly vulnerable. Hemant Soren, the state's Chief Minister, is facing significant internal challenges within his own party. Senior leaders like Champai Soren, once pillars of the JMM, have defected, citing dissatisfaction with the party leadership. The rebellion within the JMM is not only a public relations disaster but also a signal to the electorate that the party is struggling to maintain unity.
Moreover, the JMM is grappling with an anti-incumbency wave, compounded by accusations of corruption and unmet promises. The BJP has been quick to capitalise on this, framing the election as a referendum on Soren's governance. In a state where public sentiment is increasingly shifting due to economic distress and allegations of mismanagement, the JMM's electoral position looks precarious.
The Bottomline: BJP's Confidence, JMM's DilemmaAs Jharkhand heads toward a high-stakes election, the BJP's meticulous groundwork, alliances, and tribal outreach are providing it with a clear edge. The expansion of the 'Raishumaari' exercise, focus on grassroots involvement, and the strategy to form a robust NDA front reflect the BJP's intention to leave no stone unturned in its bid to regain control of the state.
Meanwhile, the JMM's internal discord and growing unpopularity have put the ruling party on the defensive. The upcoming election may well be shaped by how effectively the BJP capitalises on JMM's weaknesses, while the latter struggles to regain its footing amidst a surging tide of opposition.